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Leon Liao's avatar

Reid’s first Substack post is highly thought-provoking. Below are few of my reflections from a Chinese perspective selected from my post on China Silicon Valley series.(https://leonliao.substack.com/p/china-does-not-have-a-silicon-valley?r=731anr&utm_medium=ios)

First, from a higher-level perspective, what determines whether a country can keep building is not faith alone, but whether that faith has been embedded into its education system, financial system, industrial system, energy system, infrastructure base, and broader state capacity. Faith itself is not scarce. Almost every country says it believes in innovation. What is actually scarce is the ability to turn “the possible” into something repeatable, financeable, manufacturable, deployable, and scalable. Technological progress is rarely the triumph of entrepreneurial romanticism alone. More often, it is the result of a society that has institutionalized the impulse to create, scaled it, and lowered its cost.

Second, framing the startup as the central vehicle of modern progress is a distinctly American narrative. From the Chinese experience, a more accurate formulation might be that state capacity, infrastructure, industrial organization, and corporate competition together form the main engine of modern progress. Many of the key conditions that determine whether technology can truly diffuse are not things a single company can solve by itself. A payment system depends on clearing infrastructure, smartphone penetration, communications networks, and regulatory coordination. EV adoption depends on charging networks, grid expansion, local subsidies, and supply-chain clustering. The same is true for high-speed rail, solar, drones, and industrial robotics. China’s experience suggests that technology matters, and companies matter, but companies do not perform miracles in a vacuum. More often, they stand on top of a system that has already been organized at scale.

Third, Silicon Valley’s real strength was never just that it believed in possibility. It was that, for a period of time, it was exceptionally good at turning high-risk imagination into a high-return self-reinforcing loop. But that loop is less secure today than it once was. At its peak, Silicon Valley benefited simultaneously from the deepest pools of global capital, the world’s strongest universities and research base, the strongest inflow of global talent, the security umbrella of the American state, and an offshore manufacturing system that was cheap and highly responsive. In other words, its faith was never purely spiritual. It was underwritten by an enormous cushion of globalization gains and American hegemonic advantages. “Faith in the possible” sounds elevated, but without inexpensive engineers, complete supply chains, reliable electricity, ports, roads, land, industrial policy, and a vast domestic market, many possibilities would never be built, let alone scaled.

Fourth, the real question is not whether one believes in technology, but who gets to define what counts as progress. Reid implicitly treats technological diffusion itself as something close to progress. But from a Chinese perspective, and more broadly from the perspective of much of the Global South, progress is not only better software, faster AI models, or more highly valued companies. Real progress also includes cheaper electricity, more reliable transport, lower-cost manufacturing, broader payment access, more stable housing supply, and greater capacity for large-scale engineering deployment. Silicon Valley tends to understand “the possible” as frontier invention. China is more inclined to understand “the possible” as mass deployment. The former is closer to inventing the world. The latter is closer to restructuring reality. In the end, whoever helps define the technological direction of the twenty-first century may be the one most capable of combining both.

Jonathan Cousins's avatar

Technology is morally neutral.

For all the positives we have witnessed throughout the software, internet, and smartphone age, we have equally seen profound negatives, some tragically unintentional, and others perfectly intended.

Ultimately, the defining question of our era is not about the capabilities of the tool, but the character of the hands that wield it.

For no matter how brilliantly we fashion the tools of our age, we must never lose sight of the fundamental order of reality: we remain the clay, not the Potter.

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